The AES Indiana rate increase approved June 17th is now locked in — $71 million, phasing into your bill starting in July, with a second phase arriving in January 2027. Four more developments landed this week that compound the pressure on Indiana manufacturers: a national job quit ranking that should alarm plant leaders, a major federal subsidy and utility deal carrying unresolved litigation risk, a new workforce protection law with a design gap, and a workforce pipeline governance change most operators have already missed.

AES Indiana Rate Increase Approved 3-1 — With a 2029 Collision Ahead

The IURC voted 3-1 to approve $71 million in new AES Indiana base rates — roughly 37% of the $193 million AES originally requested, and below a prior $91 million settlement offer. Commissioners Zay, Veleta, and Ziegner voted yes. Commissioner Bob Deig voted no. Phase one hits July; phase two hits January 2027.

Two risk layers the headline obscures. First: AES Indiana is already over-earning its allowed profit by $19 million on the fuel adjustment clause — meaning the IURC approved an additional $71 million on top of a utility that, by the regulator's own math, is already financially over-performing. Second: OUCC Counselor Abby Gray has a 30-day window from June 17th to appeal to the Indiana Court of Appeals. She called the order "an outrage." If she files, that appeal could shift the residential-versus-industrial cost allocation before 2029 — when a new state law requires AES to file a multi-year rate case under the untested HEA 1002 performance-based framework. Know your AES Indiana rate exposure before that case is filed.

Indiana Ranks #2 Nationally for Job Quits — A Retention Cost Most Plant Leaders Haven't Quantified

Approximately 91,500 Hoosiers are quitting their jobs every month, putting Indiana at a 2.8 average monthly resignation rate — second only to Alaska and nearly 40% above the national average of 2.0. Indiana manufacturing wages run at 85 cents on the national dollar, with in-state wage growth of 2.6% against 4.0% nationally in 2024 and 2025. The minimum wage hasn't moved since 2009. Worker mobility is functioning as the only wage-discovery mechanism available — and that churn carries a real dollar cost every time someone walks out. The next BLS State JOLTS annual release is due in July 2026. The question to answer before it arrives is what your actual cost-per-separation is today.

Merom Generating Station Gets $27M Federal Subsidy and a 12-Year NIPSCO Data Center Deal

On June 4th, the Trump administration announced $700 million in coal subsidies under the Defense Production Act. Hallador Power's Merom Generating Station in Sullivan County — a 1,080-megawatt plant south of Terre Haute — received more than $27 million of that allocation. Separately, Hallador signed a 12-year agreement to sell Merom's electricity to NIPSCO Generation, a subsidiary created specifically to serve data centers in northern Indiana, running from September 2028 through May 2040. Analysts pegged the contract at approximately $450 per megawatt-day — well above recent MISO Zone 6 capacity auction clearing prices.

The operational risk for northern Indiana manufacturers: the Citizens Action Coalition and the OUCC have already filed to appeal the IURC's approval of the NIPSCO GenCo structure. If that appeal succeeds, the contractual chain from Merom to NIPSCO to the data centers faces disruption with 2028 as the earliest stress-test date. If you operate in NIPSCO territory, the question is how that appeal outcome reshapes available capacity and rate trajectory between now and 2028.

Indiana's New Summer Shutoff Law Leaves Most Qualifying Customers Unprotected in 2026

HEA 1002 prohibits utility disconnections within 48 hours of a 95-degree heat index forecast — but only for customers already enrolled in LIHEAP. The IHCDA enrollment window closed April 20th and won't reopen until fall. Anyone not already enrolled has no protection this summer. Municipal utilities are excluded entirely, meaning employees in city-utility service territories have zero coverage regardless of income. A heat-related disconnection can become an attendance or safety incident on your floor.

Ivy Tech Muncie's 94% Surge — And the Governance Seat Manufacturers Are Missing

Advanced manufacturing completions at Ivy Tech Muncie grew 94% — a real number. But the mechanism most operators have missed is SEA 254, which gives Muncie-area manufacturers a formal seat on the campus advisory board starting July 1st. That governance window opens once. If your team isn't at the table recommending curriculum toward automation programming and high-voltage certification, someone else fills that seat.

Questions for Your Morning Huddle

Q: When does the AES Indiana rate increase take effect for commercial and industrial customers?
A: Phase one of the $71 million AES Indiana rate increase hits bills in July 2026. Phase two follows in January 2027. An OUCC appeal filed within 30 days of June 17th could affect the final cost allocation between residential and industrial customer classes — watch for a filing before mid-July.

Q: What does Indiana's #2 national job quit ranking mean for a manufacturing facility?
A: At a 2.8 monthly resignation rate — nearly 40% above the national average — Indiana manufacturers are absorbing separation costs at a rate most have not formally quantified. With manufacturing wages at 85 cents on the national dollar and no minimum wage movement since 2009, worker mobility is functioning as the de facto wage market. Know your cost-per-separation before the July 2026 BLS JOLTS release.

Q: What is the litigation risk for NIPSCO industrial customers from the Merom data center deal?
A: The Citizens Action Coalition and the OUCC have filed to appeal the IURC's approval of the NIPSCO GenCo structure that underpins the 12-year Merom data center contract. If the appeal succeeds, capacity supply and rate trajectory for NIPSCO industrial customers could shift materially before the 2028 contract start date.

For a deeper look at how Indiana utility rate cases determine what commercial and industrial customers pay — and what levers are available before the next one is filed — start with the TEG Energy Decision Blueprint.

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