AES Indiana has filed a customer-specific contract requiring Google to fund 100% of the $1.3 billion in new infrastructure needed to power its proposed Monrovia data center — a structure designed to keep those costs off general rates and out of your power bill. That filing lands against a backdrop of slipping manufacturing employment, tariff-driven margin pressure, and a statewide unemployment rate of 3.3% that keeps your bench thin and wages moving up.

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AES Indiana–Google Contract: $1.3B in Infrastructure Costs Stays Off General Rates — For Now

AES Indiana filed under Indiana's HEA 1007 framework a customer-specific contract to serve Google's proposed data center in Monrovia. Google is responsible for 100% of its power consumption and all required infrastructure — substations through transmission — totaling roughly $1.3 billion. The filing includes minimum demand commitments so Google pays for a baseline even if usage runs lower, and exit provisions so AES customers aren't left carrying unused lines and equipment if Google scales back.

AES projects more than $770 million in savings over 15 years for ratepayers because that infrastructure doesn't get folded into general rates. Whether that savings lands for small and mid-sized commercial customers — or gets absorbed elsewhere as costs creep in through future rate cases — only becomes clear when the IURC issues its final order, expected around September 2026. History in this state says commercial tariffs often serve as the shock absorber when costs drift in, regardless of what the affordability press release sounds like. Read the final order when it lands.

Manufacturing Employment Slides as Tariffs and Automation Hit at the Same Time

Indiana is still the most manufacturing-intensive state in the country — the sector contributes roughly $129 billion and 25.9% of state GDP, employing more than 527,000 people. But the job count is no longer climbing. In Northeast Indiana, manufacturing employment is down 1.28% year-over-year, and manufacturing workers accounted for 44% of unemployment insurance claims in Q1 2026.

Overlay tariffs on top of that. Indiana's three largest export partners — Canada at roughly $14.7 billion, Mexico at about $7.1 billion, and China at around $4.8 billion — are all inside the 2025 tariff regime, raising input costs and complicating export pricing. Meanwhile, Indianapolis saw more than $400 million in advanced manufacturing capital investment between 2023 and 2025, but total advanced manufacturing employment held flat at around 87,400. The equipment arrived. The headcount didn't. Automation absorbed the capacity.

Indiana's 3.3% Unemployment Rate Means Your Skilled Labor Bench Is Shrinking

Indiana's unemployment rate held at 3.3% for the second consecutive month as of February 2026, well below the national 3.9% average. When almost everyone who wants a job already has one, manufacturers aren't just competing with each other — they're up against logistics, healthcare, and other sectors that can offer higher pay or more flexible schedules.

The tightest spots are the roles you can least afford to lose: CNC operators, welders, industrial maintenance technicians, and quality specialists. In that market, wages trend upward and rarely reverse. Every departure means lost production, extra overtime, and supervisors pulled away from the floor. And training budgets have to expand because you're developing talent internally — through Ivy Tech, vocational programs, and on-the-job training — rather than pulling ready workers from outside.

Questions for Your Morning Huddle

Q: Does the AES Indiana Google data center contract actually protect our commercial rates from $1.3B in infrastructure costs? A: The filing is structured to keep Google's infrastructure costs off general rates, with minimum demand commitments and exit provisions intended to protect AES customers. Whether small and mid-sized commercial customers see that benefit — or watch it erode through future rate case adjustments — won't be clear until the IURC issues its final order around September 2026. Watch that proceeding and read the order when it lands.

Q: Why are Indiana manufacturing jobs declining even as capital investment increases? A: Automation is absorbing most of the new capacity. Indianapolis added more than $400 million in advanced manufacturing investment between 2023 and 2025 while total advanced manufacturing employment stayed flat. Combined with tariff pressure on both inputs and exports, the sector is carrying higher costs with roughly the same number of people — which compresses margin on both sides simultaneously.

Q: With Indiana's unemployment rate at 3.3%, how do we know if our pay for skilled trades is still competitive?A: Benchmark against current Indiana DWD wage data and regional rates — not last year's numbers. In a market this tight, compensation for CNC operators, welders, and maintenance technicians moves quickly, and the cost of losing a key person to a nearby employer almost always exceeds the cost of a proactive retention adjustment made before they start looking.

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