Manufacturing News
October 27, 2026
October 27, 2026 · Statewide · Story 4 of 4
Indiana Diesel Prices Push Toward $7 a Gallon as U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates
The national average for gasoline crossed $4 a gallon Monday for the first time in over a month, according to AAA, and national diesel reached $5.11 a gallon as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensifies over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 1% to $88.98 a barrel and U.S. crude rose 0.8% to $82.44 a barrel the same day.
Those national figures already understate what Indiana manufacturers are paying. The EIA's October Short-Term Energy Outlook raised its own Q4 Brent forecast to $105 a barrel, a $14 upward revision in a single month, and now projects diesel averaging $5.55 a gallon nationally through the fourth quarter. Midwest diesel specifically reached $6.68 a gallon in late September, the highest of any U.S. region. That works out to roughly $16,000 in added annual fuel cost per tractor-trailer compared to January pricing, a figure that undercuts the White House's stated expectation that prices will fall back to pre-conflict levels once Hormuz shipping stabilizes.
- Impact
- The $5.11 diesel figure in the article is already stale: the EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook raised its Q4 Brent forecast to $105 a barrel (a $14 upward revision in a single month) and projects diesel averaging $5.55 a gallon in Q4, while Midwest diesel specifically hit $6.68 a gallon in late September, the highest of any U.S. region. That translates to roughly $16,000 in added annual fuel cost per tractor-trailer versus January pricing, which directly undercuts the White House's claim that prices will 'plummet back to pre-conflict levels' once Hormuz shipping stabilizes.
- Watch
- Watch the EIA's next monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook release and any diplomatic movement on the Strait of Hormuz conflict, since ICIS analysts warn physical oil market tightness could persist 90-plus days beyond any resolution.
- For the huddle
Have we rebid our freight and logistics contracts assuming diesel stays near $5.55 to $6.68 a gallon through Q4, rather than betting on a quick return to pre-conflict pricing?
The White House has said prices will fall back once Strait of Hormuz shipping stabilizes, but the EIA's own Q4 outlook and the Midwest regional premium suggest otherwise, so freight contracts built on a quick pullback are a bet, not a plan.
Sources
- Today’s Gas Prices By State: Average Price Of A Gallon Crosses $4 · cbsnews.com
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- Indiana Diesel Prices Push Toward $7 a Gallon as U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates
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