Kelley Futurecast Calls 2.8% Growth for Indiana, Banking Heavily on One Sector

The IU Kelley School of Business released its Futurecast 2027 outlook on November 4 in Indianapolis, projecting U.S. GDP growth of 2.6 percent and Indiana growth of 2.8 percent next year, with durable goods manufacturing forecast to grow 5.6 percent and construction 4.6 percent. IBRC Executive Director Phil Powell said Indiana's labor force, which contracted in 2026, should grow 0.5 percent in 2027 with unemployment falling to 3.1 percent, helped along by Gov. Braun's $1 billion BioHeartland tax-credit initiative targeting 100,000 agriculture and life-sciences jobs. The labor rebound leans on immigration policy holding steady, something Kelley doesn't model directly even though IBRC's own data shows immigration driving roughly 70 percent of the state's recent population growth, right as federal restriction tightens that pipeline. There's also a concentration bet buried in the optimism: the $1 billion BioHeartland commitment claims roughly a third of the IEDC's entire tax-credit pool, placed just as Eli Lilly's Lebanon GLP-1 plant races to open in 2027 ahead of Novo Nordisk's competing North Carolina facility in 2029, a narrow window of Indiana manufacturing advantage that could close fast. For background on that Lebanon buildout, see Eli Lilly's $21 billion Indiana commitment and the 2027 API opening.