Elkhart RV Industry: Canada Tariffs Hit September 8 and the LCI/Patrick Merger Adds Structural Pressure

Effective September 8 (five days from publication) Canada imposes 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum exports from the United States. Finished RVs narrowly avoided direct inclusion, but RV OEMs source steel and aluminum components through cross-border supply chains. Any Canadian input passing back through a U.S. finished product faces a direct cost increase, and secondary effects on North American steel and aluminum pricing are the variable to watch. Elkhart is already soft: Thor Industries filed WARN notices for 570 workers across Heartland RV, Cruiser RV, and DRV LLC, and RVIA is projecting 2026 industry wholesale shipments of only 315,000 to 345,000 units.

Compounding that: LCI Industries and Patrick Industries (two Elkhart-area component suppliers each reporting roughly $3.7 billion in 2024 net sales) announced an all-stock merger in June that is now in HSR antitrust review. If cleared in the first half of 2027, it creates a single dominant supplier of windows, doors, chassis, and interiors to every major OEM in the county, precisely when those OEMs are margin-compressed. If your raw material runs through Canadian supply channels, September 8 is not an abstract date. Audit that exposure before the week is out.