POET's Shelbyville Expansion and the Unfinished 45Z Credit Math

POET broke ground June 16 on a $200 million expansion of its Shelbyville plant in Shelby County, doubling bioethanol output to 193 million gallons per year by Q4 2027 and adding 32 million bushels of annual corn demand. The number to model isn't the bushels, it's the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, which runs from roughly 11 cents per gallon without carbon capture to a theoretical 60 cents with it. USDA hasn't finalized the Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator that sets the value, so if you're in POET's corn supply chain or competing for the same feedstocks, model both the floor and the ceiling before 2027 arrives.