Gary Works' Real Threat Isn't Washington, It's Arkansas

One year after Nippon Steel's $14 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel, Gary Works hasn't seen the transformation northwest Indiana communities expected. The less-discussed risk: Nippon is putting $1.9 billion into a direct reduction iron plant at its Big River Steel facility in Arkansas, expected online sometime between 2028 and 2030. Once that plant is running, a portion of the virgin iron Gary currently ships to Big River is at risk of being displaced by Arkansas-produced material. Separately, POSCO is negotiating a stake of at least 10% in Cleveland-Cliffs, owner of Burns Harbor and Indiana Harbor Works, with a disclosure deadline of September 30, 2026, a deal that would bring foreign ownership exposure without the national security conditions attached to the Nippon transaction. Operators sourcing steel from northwest Indiana should be reviewing counterparty exposure in their supply contracts ahead of that date.