Canada's Retaliatory Tariffs Are Live, And Indiana Is Among the Hardest-Hit States

Canada's retaliatory tariff package took effect just after midnight Tuesday: 50% on U.S. steel and aluminum exports to Canada, 15% on forklifts and industrial molds, 25% on certain household appliances. Economists named Midwestern states (including Indiana) as hardest hit, which is not a surprise given what Indiana actually manufactures and exports.

Here is what most briefings are not covering: the tariff list is negotiable, and there are two distinct tracks your trade counsel needs to be working simultaneously right now.

Track 1, Export exposure (Global Affairs Canada petition): Canada removed U.S. seafood from its retaliatory list after direct lobbying from the lobster sector. Indiana manufacturers facing the forklift or appliance tariffs have the same pathway, petition Global Affairs Canada for removal through Canadian trade counsel and industry associations. This is the track for what you export to Canada.

Track 2, Import exposure (USTR exclusion process): If your operation imports Canadian industrial molds, your exposure runs through the U.S. side, the USTR exclusion petition process. That is a separate regulatory track entirely. Conflating the two will cost you time you do not have.

On the mold supply chain specifically: at 15%, a $200,000 tooling order carries $30,000 in new liability that did not exist last week. That math is sufficient to permanently redirect sourcing decisions toward Asian suppliers rather than domestic Indiana vendors. This is a supply-chain reroute risk (not a temporary cost bump) and you have approximately sixteen months before a separate automotive and steel escalation against Canadian imports hits in January 2027. Sixteen months sounds long until the procurement and tooling lead times absorb most of it.

One more item for trade counsel: Following a 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating certain IEEPA-based tariff actions, importers who filed timely protests may have a refund pathway through CBP. The liquidation window is tight. Confirm with trade counsel whether your entries are still protestable before assuming refunds are available.