Indiana Manufacturing Tariff Job Losses Rank Second in the Midwest

A joint study from the Midwest Economic Policy Institute and the University of Illinois' Project for Middle Class Renewal, drawing on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data and modeling from Yale University's Budget Lab, estimates 2025 tariffs cost Midwest manufacturers 41,700 jobs across six states. Indiana accounts for roughly 9,100 of them.

The detail most coverage skips sits inside the Yale modeling: it projects long-run U.S. manufacturing output expanding even as employment falls. One plausible read is capital-for-labor substitution, surviving manufacturers absorbing tariff costs by accelerating automation instead of rehiring. The model does not decompose the mechanism, but the output-up/employment-down pattern is consistent with it, which means hiring could lag even if tariffs ease. The wildcard is the Supreme Court weighing the constitutional validity of IEEPA-based tariff authority. Treat 9,100 as a floor, and stress-test the reversal scenario against every supply-chain restructuring decision your team made in 2025 assuming tariffs were permanent.