Indiana Labor Market and Toyota Supplier Cluster: Seven Months Down, and Four Plants Going Dark in July

Dr. Uric Dufrene at Indiana University Southeast has documented seven consecutive months of negative year-over-year job changes in Indiana, the longest such streak outside a declared recession since 2003. Manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing are leading the declines. The ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 54.0 in May with new orders at 56.8, a four-year high. The ISM employment sub-index remains contractionary at 48.6. Orders are recovering before hiring does, and that lag has historically run two to four quarters.

Meanwhile, four Toyota suppliers, in Seymour, Princeton, Terre Haute, and Vincennes, are shutting down simultaneously in July. ADVICS Terre Haute carries the highest risk profile: a delayed restart there is the most direct path to disruptions at both TMMI Princeton and Subaru Lafayette at the same time. War-game your production schedule against a 72-hour ADVICS delay before that window opens.