USMCA's July 1 Deadline Hits Elkhart Where It's Already Bleeding

Thor Industries reported a 470-basis-point gross margin compression and a 25 percent drop in North American shipments, and that was before Commerce eliminated the Section 232 product exclusion request process. The primary administrative channel for component-level tariff relief is gone. FTZ, drawback, and Chapter 98 strategies remain available, but they require trade counsel review before July 1, not after. Identify every component that previously carried Section 232 exclusion protection and price the full tariff cost into your H2 assumptions now. Steel Dynamics reports Q2 earnings July 20, with its Columbus aluminum ramp targeting 60,000 to 70,000 tons, the USMCA exposure on its San Luis Potosi slab center has not been a focus in recent analyst commentary and is worth your own assessment before earnings land.