Nucor has now committed $492 million across four Indiana projects since 2021 — and today's brief covers four connected developments that Indiana plant leaders need to track before January. A new steel grating line in DeKalb County reshapes supplier bundling. A $71 million AES Indiana rate fight has a January implementation date regardless of what regulators decide at the March 2027 hearing. Q3 guidance from two of Indiana's largest steel producers is sending a pricing signal that raises input costs for every manufacturer buying sheet steel. And a federal aluminum tariff window closes in 16 months with no domestic supply solution in sight.

Vulcraft DeKalb County: The Bundling Play Your Suppliers Can't Match

Nucor confirmed a $59 million investment to build a new 127,000-square-foot facility on Vulcraft Indiana's existing 250-acre campus in St. Joe, DeKalb County. Groundbreaking is planned for Q4 2026, with up to 20 new jobs averaging more than 150% of the DeKalb County wage average targeted by end of 2027.

Most coverage has focused on job creation. That's the wrong lens. When this expansion is complete, Vulcraft Indiana will be the only Midwest campus capable of supplying steel joists, joist girders, deck, and grating from a single order. Standalone grating competitors — Ohio Gratings, AMICO, McNichols — cannot replicate that from one location without Nucor's vertically integrated cost structure behind them.

The demand anchor is already in place. Amazon's $15 billion New Carlisle data center campus sits inside Vulcraft Indiana's natural delivery radius. AIA projects that steel grating demand from data center construction will grow 33% in 2026 and 25% in 2027.

If your team is still sourcing industrial grating from a standalone distributor, this bundling option changes your negotiating position on both pricing and lead time.

AES Indiana Rate Rehearing: Phase 2 Hits in January Either Way

Parties to AES Indiana's $71 million rate increase met Thursday for the first session of a reconsideration and rehearing now scheduled for a one-day hearing in early March 2027. AES, the OUCC, Citizens Action Coalition, the City of Indianapolis, Eli Lilly, Allison Transmission, and Marathon Petroleum are all at the table.

The detail that is not getting enough attention: embedded in the original settlement is a rate-freeze commitment. AES Indiana agreed to file no new base rate case until at least 2030 and no new TDSIC plan before 2028. If the IURC restructures or rolls back the $71 million increase at the March hearing, AES faces a multi-year capital funding gap precisely as it tries to integrate 820 megawatts of planned battery storage by 2032 and absorb new large-load data center customers.

Phase 1 already took effect July 27. Phase 2 hits in January — the OUCC did not seek a stay. For industrial customers, that translates to roughly a 3 to 4% rate impact on top of Phase 1. Industrial parties like Allison Transmission and Marathon Petroleum could independently pursue a stay — watch the docket. The constitutional overhang from fired Commissioner Andy Zay's $625,000 settlement remains live and could extend this proceeding well past March.

If your facility is in AES Indiana territory, model your industrial rate exposure before January.

Nucor and Steel Dynamics Q3 Guidance: What the Miss Signals for Steel Buyers

On September 17, Nucor issued Q3 2026 earnings guidance at $5.55 to $5.65 per diluted share — below analyst consensus of $6.20. Shares fell 3.7% in after-hours trading. Fort Wayne-based Steel Dynamics issued its own Q3 guidance the same day at $5.34 to $5.38, also below consensus, also down more than 3% in after-hours.

Do not read this as a company-specific stumble. Two Midwest EAF producers guiding below consensus on the same day indicates the market had priced in more tariff-driven pricing upside than mills are actually capturing. The pass-through to buyers is real — but the ceiling on further increases may be closer than equity forecasts assumed.

Midwest hot-rolled coil futures are trading near $1,223 per short ton, up from a 52-week low of $793. That is a 35 to 50% increase in under 12 months. Steel prices are rising fast enough to pressure Indiana OEMs and fabricators on input costs. Nucor's steel mills and steel products segments are both expected to post higher Q3 earnings on higher average selling prices — and that pricing flows directly through to your inbound material cost.

Mark October 26 for Nucor's Q3 earnings release. If your steel supply contracts are spot-indexed, assess your margin exposure now — not at year-end.

Questions for Your Morning Huddle

Q: What does the Nucor Vulcraft DeKalb County expansion mean for Indiana steel grating buyers?

A: When the new facility is complete, Vulcraft Indiana will be the only Midwest campus supplying joists, joist girders, deck, and grating from a single order. Standalone grating distributors cannot replicate that bundling from one location, which changes your pricing and lead-time leverage if you're sourcing from a regional competitor.

Q: When does AES Indiana Phase 2 take effect and what is the industrial rate impact?

A: Phase 2 takes effect in January 2026 — the OUCC did not seek a stay, so the March 2027 rehearing does not block implementation. Industrial customers should model a 3 to 4% rate increase on top of the Phase 1 impact that took effect July 27.

Q: What do the Nucor and Steel Dynamics Q3 guidance misses signal for Indiana steel buyers?

A: Two of the largest Midwest EAF producers guiding below consensus on the same day signals that the tariff-driven pricing ceiling may be closer than the market assumed — but Midwest hot-rolled coil is still trading near $1,223 per short ton, up 35 to 50% from its 52-week low. Your inbound steel cost is higher; the question is how much runway remains for further increases.

Q: What happens to aluminum tariffs in January 2028 and why does it matter for Indiana manufacturers?

A: The July 2026 executive action cut the Section 232 aluminum rate from 50% to 25% for companies committing to domestic smelter construction, but that conditional rate expires automatically on January 1, 2028. No new U.S. primary smelter can be operational before the mid-2030s given build timelines. Tier 1 and Tier 2 auto suppliers with aluminum input costs face a hard reset in 16 months — secondary recycled aluminum processors may be the only realistic near-term sourcing alternative.

Three Actions for This Week

Audit every supply contract that carries aluminum input costs through 2028 and identify which ones assume the 25% conditional Section 232 rate.

If your facility is in the AES Indiana service territory, model a 3 to 4% industrial rate increase taking effect in January alongside Phase 2 — and model what a full settlement rollback means for AES capital spending on grid reliability through 2030.

Contact a secondary aluminum supplier and get a comparative cost quote before the tariff window resets.

All three cost vectors — rising steel input costs, a contested power rate increase with a January implementation date, and a hard-expiring aluminum tariff window — arrive at the same 12 to 18-month horizon. If your supply contracts, energy cost model, and tariff exposure aren't stress-tested through early 2028, this is the week to start.

For more on how the AES Indiana rate case affects industrial electricity costs, see the TEG Daily coverage of the AES Indiana rate case and the IURC commissioner firing and the September 11 brief on AES Indiana rate case timing and aluminum tariff job risk.

For the demand charge and rate structure fundamentals that sit behind any AES rate increase, the canon post on demand charges for commercial and industrial facilities covers how those line items are calculated and where industrial exposure concentrates.